Dick Bonneville
by on September 15, 2011
Week 1 of the 2011 season is now in the books, and it was a wild one. I am a member of multiple football pools of various types (NFL Fantasy, NFL Survivor, etc.) at <font size=4><font color=#000376>The</font><font color=#820000>OfficePool</font><font color=#000376>.com</font></font>, but my focus is always on my first love...the good old weekly pick em pool. I've been doing them and running them for 25 years, and I've finished in the Top 3 in nine of those years. If you think that's lucky, I'm here to tell you....luck has nothing to do with it. Those of you who've followed these posts in the past know that I wrote a computer program back in 1992 to help me do my picks, and yes....if I were more of a gambler, I would likely be a rich man by now, but I've NEVER finished below 52% for a season, and that's better than most handicappers. While the computer takes some of the weekly confusion out of things for me, it is based on very specific logic and trends. As I survey the docket of games for week 2, I see a lot of traps and a chance for many to dig themselves out of a week 1 hole. Here are some thoughts on what to look for (and look out for) in week 2, along with my three BEST PICKS for the week: <font color=#820000>STICK TO YOUR OVERALL STRATEGY</font> If you haven't already, decide on an overall approach to picking the games and stick with it ALL SEASON. Seventeen weeks is a really protracted war, and treating each week as a separate battle can be a dangerous tack to take. Overall pool winners, on average, get just 53 to 54 percent of the games correct for a season, and interestingly, the average year-end across all pools is well under 50%. That means that you could flip a coin for every game and likely finish in the top third of your pool. By that logic, creating a strategy based on NFL matchup trends will result in finishing at or near the top in most pools. The trick is to stick with it. You may lose a battle or two, but ultimately you'll win the war. <font color=#820000>DON'T OVERREACT TO WEEK ONE</font> This approach coincides with your overall strategy. Week 1 had some very surprising outcomes, but it doesn't mean that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the new Peyton Manning, nor does it herald the Bengals as Super Bowl XLVI Champions. It was one week, and it remains to be seen how these teams will do when other teams hit their stride and have more tape on them, so stick to the plan. <font color=#820000>WEEK TWO PICKS</font> Here are a few games that my computer and I like for week 2: Baltimore over Tennesse Philadelphia over Atlanta and the upset special of the week: San Francisco to cover vs. Dallas OK, there you have it...a few tips for week 2 and solid advice on how to win your NFL Weekly Pick 'em Pool in 2011. Stay tuned to <font size=4><font color=#000376>The</font><font color=#820000>OfficePool</font><font color=#000376>.com</font></font> for more posts!!!!
Posted in: Sports, Office Pools
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