Dick Bonneville
by on August 16, 2011
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Now that Football is BACK, I know that I'll be joining multiple football pools of various types (NFL Fantasy, NFL Survivor, etc.) at <font size=4><font color=#000376>The</font><font color=#820000>OfficePool</font><font color=#000376>.com</font></font>, but my first love is the good old weekly pick em vs. the spread pool. I've been doing them and running them for 25 years, and I've finished in the Top 3 in nine of those years. If you think that's lucky, I'm here to tell you....luck has nothing to do with it.
In fairness, I wrote a computer program back in 1992 to help me do my picks, and yes....if I were more of a gambler, I would likely be a rich man by now, but I've NEVER finished below 52% for a season, and that's better than most handicappers. How do I do it? I have a system, and while I can't share my program with the world, I'm perfectly willing to share with you the logic behind it.
So, without further ado, here are 5 tips that will help you win your NFL Weekly Pick 'Em Pool
Have a System
Now not everyone is as geeky as I am, so I'm not expecting you to write a computer program, but if you want to have success, you need to have a system. Some people take all dogs, some flip a coin (don't laugh...you're guaranteed at least close to 50%, and statistically most players end up below that line). I based my system on trending based on matchups (within the division, in conference, out of conference, etc.) and programmed my system to weight the teams accordingly.
Be Consistent
Winning a week or even two in a season is great, and depending on how much your buy in is, that could pay for your entries for a couple of years, but winning the whole enchilada is big bucks, and will finance your pool habit for the rest of your life. Once you have a system, don't let one sub-par week throw you. The second you start going based on hunches or inconsistent systems, you're dead!
Talk Smack
Normally, I'm not a big proponent of talking smack. I never do it on the court or the softball diamond, but in the world of your pool...it can be essential. Watch the boards, and get an idea about who your competition likes, and hint at how you might be leaning. The more your competition is picking with his/her heart, the more likely they are to tank.
Don't be a "Homer"
This one is tough. We all love our home teams, and we want to believe they can pull off the big upset, even when logic tells us otherwise. Personally, I always enroll two entries to every pool I join. One that is strictly what my computer program spits out....one for my heart. For the record, the latter has given me two weekly wins in 25 years.
Pick Dogs Early
I contemplated not sharing this advice, as it's almost unfair, but this is key based on my trending research. Pick lots of underdogs in the first three weeks of the season, as they do have a tendency to cover. I attribute this phenomenon to new players still jelling and getting used to new systems. That tends to level the playing field. I'm willing to bet that you'll see this even more this year with the lockout shortened training camps and pre-season.
OK, there you have it. Five ways to make sure you finish near the top of your 2011 NFL Weekly Pick 'em pool
Stay tuned to <font size=4><font color=#000376>The</font><font color=#820000>OfficePool</font><font color=#000376>.com</font></font> for more posts!!!!
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